Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(01/11/2010 12:48 EST)

HALF MOON BAY, Calif. -- ''We think the recession is over,'' declared Robert Fry, senior economist for DuPont, at SEMI's Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here.

The question is what will the worldwide recovery look like? Fry does not expect a V-shape recovery in 2010, but rather something different.

''A V-shape bottom is the historical norm, but few expect one,'' he said. The real shape of the recovery is the so-called ''Nike swoosh,'' he said. The ''swoosh'' is the symbol of the athletic shoe and clothing manufacturer Nike. That symbol can be seen here.

At ISS, Duncan Meldrum, an economist for the Center for Forecasting & Modeling at IHS Global Insight, made the following observations about the economy:

1. We are at the beginning of a recovery. ''(This is) a long, slow recovery in production in most regions and industries. (We're seeing the) end of decline, then a long, slow recovery in investment.''

2. Panic now in the past. ''Production and consumer declines reached lows in mid 2009. Financial crisis revealed excess physical capital for underlying demand. Now (we're) in a long adjustment period, to repair and rebalance the global economic system.''

3. There are several recovery drivers: monetary policy, low interest rates, bank rescue packages, massive fiscal stimulus packages, relatively low commodity prices, inventory correction cycle over, and a slow build up of pent-up demand.

4. Worldwide GDP is expected to hit 2.7 in 2010, compared to minus 2.1 in 2009. The worldwide industrial production index is expected to hit 3.5 in 2010, compared to minus 10 in 2009.

5. Regional recovery differences may be sharp. Asia grows, led by China, India; Japan lags North America modest gains on relatively weaker consumer spending. Europe protracted weakness.

6. Slow recovery in U.S. computer growth. PC spending momentum turned positive in October 2009. (2009 growth: minus 11.1 percent; 2010: plus 1.6 percent; 2011: plus 6.3 percent).